The rates, with denominators
Facts checked October 22, 2026
Ask five pages for the prop firm pass rate and you will get 8.89%, 14%, 16.8%, 23%, 36.22% and 51.8% — every one of them sourced, and almost none of them comparable. The trick is never the number; it is the denominator. This page prints each figure with the only label that makes it honest: who was counted.
| Figure | Who is counted | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 14% reach funded; ~45% of those ever paid → ≈7% of all buyers ever paid | Buyers (300,000+ accounts, 10 firms) | FPFX Technology, via Finance Magnates (2024) |
| 16.8% completed; 33.3% of funded paid; 0.71% reached live capital | Trading Combines started (2025) | Topstep, firm-published |
| 51.8% passed at least once | People — including repeat buyers | Topstep, same disclosure |
| 19.97% passed; 39.2% of funded paid | Evaluations started | MyFundedFutures, firm-published |
| 36.22% passed | Tests (2025) | Take Profit Trader, firm-published |
| 8.89% passed; ~18% withdrew | Evaluations (2025) | Earn2Trade, firm-published |
| "Around 23%" | Unstated | One firm's marketing FAQ — the kind of figure to discount entirely |
If you are deciding whether to pay, the only denominator that matches your position is buyers: of everyone who paid, what share ever received a payout? On the only multi-firm dataset, that is about 7 in 100. Firm-published figures describe one firm's funnel in one period — useful inside the checker, labelled — and "people who passed at least once" describes the retry cycle the industry is paid on. When a video quotes 51.8%, it is quoting the size of the repeat market, not your odds.
Reported failure causes: rule violations ≈54% of failures, revenge trading and psychology 30–40%; about two-thirds of failures land in the first 10 trading days, and drawdown breaches cause an estimated 60–70%. The pass rate is low mostly because the drawdown is close — which is a statement about geometry, and geometry can be rehearsed free on a demo under the same rules.
The verdict gives you the expected cost and the rule that applies to you. The Challenge Odds Kit gives you, program by program, the before-you-buy checklist, the style-versus-rules worksheets, the expected-cost workbook, and the payout-protection playbook: how to never hand a firm the excuse to refuse your payout.
Included in the $39 Challenge Odds Kit
Sources: the firms' own published pages (price grids and program terms), the FPFX Technology dataset of 300,000+ accounts reported by Finance Magnates (2024), pass and payout figures published by the firms themselves, and regulator publications (CFTC, FSMA, Consob, CNMV). Recorded and checked October 22, 2026. Prices on this site are the list prices recorded on that date, promotions excluded; if a price or a rule has moved since, the firm's own page wins — and write to help@doogex.com so we can correct ours.